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                    <h1>上半年GDP数据解读：经济仍处于弱复苏期，需警惕民间投资持续低位</h1>
                </div>
                <div class="time wow fadeInUp animated" style="animation-delay: 0.2s">2023 07-18</div>
                <div class="text">
                    <p>
                        国家统计局于7月17日公布2023年上半年经济数据，其中GDP增速为5.5%；全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.8%；全国固定资产投资累计同比增长3.8%；全国居民人均消费支出名义增长8.4%。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        部分经济数据不及市场预期，经济呈弱复苏态势，但6月数据可体现经济增速临近拐点，未来有望修复加快。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p><strong>GDP不及预期，但底部已现</strong></p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>2023年</p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>国家统计局于7月17日公布2023年上半年经济数据，其中GDP增速为5.5%；全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.8%；全国固定资产投资累计同比增长3.8%；全国居民人均消费支出名义增长8.4%。</p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>部分经济数据不及市场预期，经济呈弱复苏态势，但6月数据可体现经济增速临近拐点，未来有望修复加快。</p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        <strong>GDP不及预期，但底部已现</strong>
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        2023年上半年GDP增速为5.5%，其中一季度同比增长4.5%，二季度同比增长6.3%。受益于疫后需求释放及积压性生产，一季度好于预期。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        二季度GDP季调环比为0.8%，前值为2.2%，两年平均增速为3.3%，低于前值的4.7%，叠加去年的低基数，虽然二季度增速达6.3%，但仍低于市场预期的7%左右。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        首先是由于疫后补偿性因素相对一季度缩减，其次是内需不足，例如消费、地产等，再者目前我国处于去库存阶段，最后是受外需影响的外贸进一步下滑。随着6月数据的出炉，这一情况或将改善。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        据统计上半年城镇失业率为5.3%，6月为5.2%，失业率进一步下降，就业进一步改善。并且全国居民人均可支配收入同比名义增长6.5%，相较一季度加快1.4%，收入的进一步提升可能进一步拉动消费意愿，带动经济增长。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        再者考虑PPI的负数效应，剔除价格后固定投资增速仍保持良好水平。还有基建仍较高的水平以及工业临近主动补库存等因素，有望底部已现，未来经济修复节奏加快。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        <strong>工业好于预期，增速有望持续加快</strong>
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        据数据显示，2023年上半年全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长3.8%，其中装备制造业增加值贡献最大，增长6.5%。在产品中新能源汽车仍为亮点，同比增长35.0%。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        单月来看，6月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.4%，较5月增速加快2.1个百分点，超出市场预期的2.7%。并且两年平均增速上行2.1个百分点，高于前值。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        我们分析这是由于除去疫情因素消除叠加的同比影响，采矿业5.0%的增长也使得大宗稳保供，以及汽车消费的良好表现使汽车生产达到同比12.4%的增长等等。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        预计未来工业增速可能会有更亮眼的表现，首先是去年7、8月份受高温限电影响存在低基数效应，其次是工业去库存进一步加快，存在处于尾声的可能，最后是受政策影响内需可能进一步增强，拉动工业整体发展。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        <strong>投资增速进一步放缓，仍超预期，但需警惕民间投资持续低位</strong>
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        今年上半年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）243113亿元，累计同比增长3.8%，高于市场预期的3.3%，剔除大宗商品价格影响数据将进一步增长。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        分领域看，基础设施投资增长7.2%，制造业投资增长6.0%，房地产开发投资下降7.9%。分产业看，第二产业投资74839亿元，同比增长8.9%，为主要拉动产业，其中电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资贡献最大，同比增长27.0%。并且基建同比增长7.2%，仍维持较高水准。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        总体来看，固投仍处于放缓趋势，前两年期平均增速为5.0%，地产与民间投资成为最大拖累因素，1-6月房地产开发投资下降7.9%；上半年，民间固定资产投资同比下降0.2%。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        据数据显示，与疫情前的2019年同期相比，民间投资减少5.17万亿元。民间投资持续低位制约经济的发展，降低经济的活力，拉动民间投资意愿也是带动经济发展的重要因素之一。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        <strong>消费端修复，消费意愿有望拉升</strong>
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        据国家统计局数据显示，2023年1-6月全国居民人均消费支出12739元，比上年同期名义增长8.4%，扣除价格因素影响，实际增长7.6%。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        今年上半年消费总量处于历年同期新高，且2020-2023年期间年均增速为3.91%，但由于疫情影响低基数叠加效应，消费端仍处于修复期。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        6月单月社零同比增长3.1%，对比5月的12.7%出现较大下滑。首先是以后补偿性的缩减，之前的几个月集中释放造成6月的动能缩减，其次是低基数效应减退和618促销效果不佳，最后是疫情的疤痕效应及其他影响造成消费意愿的整体下降等。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        居民收入的稳固提升在未来将加大消费意愿，并且随着6月经济数据的出炉，可能也会有一系列政策进行消费的刺激。
                    </p>
                    <p>&nbsp;</p>
                    <p>
                        上半年GDP增速为5.5%，其中一季度同比增长4.5%，二季度同比增长6.3%。受益于疫后需求释放及积压性生产，一季度好于预期。
                    </p>
                </div>
                <div class="other wow fadeInUp animated">
                    <h5>来源: 钛媒体APP</h5>
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